Major central banks vs. emerging markets: A tale of diverging policies
Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more rate hikes in the US without any cuts in the near term. Lagarde has practically confirmed an ECB hike in July. In other news, the Australian dollar has rebounded despite the unexpected decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged in their July meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has approached new lows despite speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the FX market (more on that in a later episode). However, the primary focus of this week's episode will be on emerging markets.