Central banks turn dovish: Are rate hikes at an end?
August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss.
Over the past few weeks, headlines have been dominated by the meetings of the G4 central banks, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 25 basis points at its July meeting. This comes after offering indications that it may cease raising rates, following evident signs of U.S. inflation easing. In the same vein, the European Central Bank adopted an unexpectedly dovish stance. Notably, Lagarde refrained from committing to any hikes, suggesting a potential pause from September onwards.